3 Ways to Improve Your Decision Making
The best decision makers have a sense of two things: one, how different choices change the likelihood of different outcomes; and, two, how desirable each of those outcomes is. The article's author also notes that there are three rules for decision making that stand out, and following them will improve your ability to predict the effects of your choices and assess their desirability. The first rule is "be less certain" about everything. Thinking that choice A will lead to outcome B is probably a bit less likely than you believe. Similarly, thinking outcome B is preferable to outcome C is also something that should be stopped and pondered. "Once you accept that you're overconfident, you can revisit the logic of your decision," the article's author writes.

The second rule is to ask, "How often does that typically happen?" That question is generally the best starting point for most predictions and forecasts. If your organization is considering funding a start-up, for instance, the first question might be: "What percentage of start-ups fail?" The same thought process could be applied when considering launching a new association initiative. The third and final rule is "think probabilistically — and learn some basic probability." The first two rules will be easier once you have improved your ability to think probabilistically. For one, you will be able to better express your uncertainty. And, two, you will have the ability to numerically think about "how often this usually happens."
Harvard Business Review (01/22/18) Frick, Walter
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