Embracing Uncertainty Can Lead to Better Decisions
An uncertain future should never be used as an excuse for less rigor or clarity, say authors Peter Hopper and Carl Spetzler. Through the example of a large, multinational consumer brand company stuck at a long and costly impasse on sourcing locations, the authors illustrate how an approach based on assigning percentage-based probabilities to different outcomes led the company to arrive at a solution that otherwise may not have been considered.

What emerged was a clear and quantified view of the likely outcomes of each alternative. This approach to accepting uncertainty and exploring a variety of potential outcomes applies to companies and associations alike. According to the authors, doing so “not only builds the best foundation for making good leadership decisions, it also provides a platform for developing a shared understanding of trade-offs, bridging disagreement and establishing accountability.”
Harvard Business Review (05/18/16) Hopper, Peter; Spetzler, Carl
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